A failing system gets worse. That seems to be the main lesson from the latest sets of data published by the National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) covering the comparative performance of the 43 firearms licensing departments within police forces across England and Wales.
Critically, the public now has three consecutive data sets, meaning that a trend can be formally established, and it’s not a good one.
The published data now covers Q4 2024 to Q2 2025, and contains several key metrics, including percentage of firearms licence applications completed within four months. Whilst the breadth of statistics given is neither great nor truly diagnostic, we can draw some very pertinent conclusions.
Performance of police force on percentage of applications completed within four months varies hugely, with Lincolnshire achieving 100%, 100% and 99% in the three quarters measured, whereas its neighbouring force to the north, Humberside, managed 85%, 64% and 26%. This is an unacceptable disparity.
It is when overall performance of all forces is tracked across the three quarters that a more alarming fact is proven – firearms licensing is not functioning properly and it’s demonstrably getting worse. This needs to change.
Performance declined by 6.4% from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025, meaning that almost a quarter of applications, which some people's jobs and livelihoods depend on, are not being completed in an appropriate timescale - statutory guidance for police chiefs recommends that 16 weeks is sufficient time for a renewal application to be prepared and completed.
The above chart looks chaotic, and that’s because it shows the massive inconsistency of police force firearms licensing performance. It should look like 43 horizontal lines lines up at the top of the chart, but it clearly doesn’t. It represents perfectly the postcode lottery that is firearms licensing.
Today’s approach is characterised by inconsistency, inefficiency, and uneven service delivery across different police forces. Recent inspections and coroners’ inquests have repeatedly highlighted weaknesses in governance, risk assessment, oversight, and information sharing. In contrast, many other high-risk sectors in the UK such as security, aviation, and healthcare are overseen by national licensing bodies that ensure fairness, consistency, and efficiency.
That is why the Countryside Alliance is campaigning for the establishment of a National Firearms & Explosives Licensing Agency (NFELA), which offers the most promising solution. A single body would improve consistency, strengthen governance, modernise IT systems, streamline training and recruitment, and provide transparent financial accountability. Importantly, it would enhance public safety while offering fairer, more efficient and consistent services to certificate holders.
The system is not fit for purpose; a centralised, single licensing body could fix that.
Has your police force got worse? Find out in the table below...
| Force Name | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | 3-Quarter change |
| Avon & Somerset | 93% | 96% | 98% | 5% |
| Bedfordshire | 39% | 49% | 42% | 3% |
| Cambridgeshire | 32% | 45% | 37% | 5% |
| Cheshire | 99% | 99% | 99% | 0% |
| City of London | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Cleveland | 98% | 98% | 99% | 1% |
| Cumbria | 97% | 97% | 97% | 0% |
| Derbyshire | 99% | 98% | 97% | -2% |
| Devon & Cornwall | 88% | 86% | 86% | -2% |
| Dorset | 61% | 53% | 45% | -16% |
| Durham | 77% | 85% | 74% | -3% |
| Dyfed-Powys | 97% | 95% | 95% | -2% |
| Essex | 72% | 98% | 96% | 24% |
| Gloucestershire | 96% | 96% | 93% | -3% |
| GMP | 87% | 86% | 85% | -2% |
| Gwent | 95% | 97% | 98% | 3% |
| Hampshire | 93% | 95% | 96% | 3% |
| Hertfordshire | 35% | 43% | 40% | 5% |
| Humberside | 85% | 64% | 26% | -59% |
| Kent | 97% | 96% | 96% | -1% |
| Lancashire | 94% | 97% | 95% | 1% |
| Leicestershire | 91% | 92% | 88% | -3% |
| Lincolnshire | 100% | 100% | 99% | -1% |
| Merseyside | 97% | 98% | 98% | 1% |
| Met Police | 83% | 82% | 79% | -4% |
| Norfolk | 79% | 68% | 59% | -20% |
| North Wales | 92% | 93% | 82% | -10% |
| North Yorkshire | 92% | 94% | 93% | 1% |
| Northamptonshire | 80% | 72% | 72% | -8% |
| Northumbria | 48% | 42% | 40% | -8% |
| Nottinghamshire | 95% | 97% | 97% | 2% |
| South Wales | 72% | 84% | 83% | 11% |
| South Yorkshire | 97% | 98% | 97% | 0% |
| Staffordshire | 91% | 83% | 74% | -17% |
| Suffolk | 67% | 52% | 39% | -28% |
| Surrey | 73% | 65% | 51% | -22% |
| Sussex | 71% | 56% | 41% | -30% |
| TVP | 93% | 95% | 95% | 2% |
| Warwickshire | 97% | 95% | 91% | -6% |
| West Mercia | 83% | 81% | 82% | -1% |
| West Midlands | 79% | 73% | 61% | -18% |
| West Yorkshire | 95% | 80% | 51% | -44% |
| Wiltshire | 90% | 87% | 85% | -5% |