Defra publishes risk assessment which lacks detail and scientific scrutiny

Defra has today published a risk assessment that focuses on the risks of transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from released gamebirds to wild birds this summer when HPAI was at unprecedented levels in captive and wild birds.

It is unfortunate that Defra did not engage with the Countryside Alliance or other members of Aim to Sustain during its production.

The risk assessment considers the transmission of the virus to wild birds both from pheasants infected at a release site before release, and from pheasants infected after release. However, whilst it considers the release of large numbers of pheasants in excess of wild bird populations at an individual release site, it does not consider the total number of release sites across Great Britain; neither does it consider release sites where smaller numbers of pheasants are released. As such, the results may not apply to all release sites, or where smaller numbers are released.

The risk assessment is retrospective as it is only applicable to the HPAI that occurred during the 2021 to 2022 season, with previous or subsequent HPAI seasons being outside the scope of the assessment. Defra has also acknowledged that there is high uncertainty inherent within it, with a lack of data and a reliance on assumptions. Indeed, it states that due to the limited data available, and the reliance on assumptions, particularly around abundance and wild bird contacts with pheasants, the uncertainty in the assessment is high. Defra has likewise acknowledged that there are several areas throughout their assessment where more information could yield more robust estimates and reduce uncertainty, and their wish to now work with our sector in order to improve their knowledge is welcomed.

Adrian Blackmore, Director of Shooting for the Countryside Alliance, said: "Given the uncertainty, assumptions, and limited scope of the assessment, it lacks the necessary detail and scientific scrutiny to enable Defra to make any policy decisions based on its conclusions. We welcome Defra's wish to work with us in order to improve their knowledge, and the robustness of their data, and in doing so have an assessment that is better informed".